What's next for Norwegian salmon farming? Stakeholder perceptions on what influences industry development

Norway is a leading producer of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) globally, and the aquaculture sector aims to continue this growth. The advantages of farmed fish, such as Atlantic salmon, include a low carbon footprint; therefore, salmon farming can play a central role in reducing emissions from food production while still meeting the growing food demand. However, aquaculture incurs certain sustainability challenges, such as escape of fish, marine pollution and salmon lice affecting both farmed and wild salmon negatively. Salmon production in traditional sea-based open net pens is curbed by these challenges through governmental regulations in Norway; thus, the industry is seeking alternative production systems. Emerging aquaculture production systems for salmon fish farming in Norway include sea-based closed and semi-closed, land-based and open ocean aquaculture systems. This paper presents industry actors' perceptions of the technological, social, economic and environmental factors that can influence the development of both traditional and new production systems in the near future. To explore these perceptions, a series of workshops were conducted from 2021 to 2023. Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was used as a key method to map out and describe the connections among almost 40 variables the industry representatives considered important for the development of the salmon farming industry. The most discussed variables were grouped into three categories: willingness to develop, economic considerations and regulations and framework conditions. • Emerging aquaculture production systems for salmon fish farming in Norway are explored. • Perceptions of factors that can influence the development of salmon farming are presented. • Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was used as a key method. • Willingness to develop, economy, regulations and framework conditions were prominent factors.