Drinking Intensity at Age 29/30 as a Predictor of Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms at Age 35 in a National Sample

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this longitudinal study was to identify associations of drinking intensity at age 29/30 with symptoms of alcohol use disorder (AUD) at age 35. METHOD: Analyses used national longitudinal data from 1,253 individuals (53.5% female) participating in the Monitoring the Future study. Age 29/30 data were collected from 2005 to 2013; age 35 data were collected from 2010 to 2018. Multivariable models regressed age 35 past-5-year AUD symptoms (vs. nondisordered drinking/abstinence) on age 29/30 past-2-week drinking intensity (no/low 0-4 drinking, binge 5-9 drinking, high-intensity 10+ drinking), with key covariates being controlled for. RESULTS: At age 35, 32.6% (SE = 1.50) of respondents reported AUD symptoms. AUD symptoms at age 35 were reported by 77.5% (SE = 4.79) of participants who reported age 29/30 high-intensity drinking and 60.6% (SE = 3.95) of participants who reported age 29/30 binge drinking. Age 35 past-5-year abstinence was reported by almost no respondents reporting age 29/30 binge drinking or high-intensity drinking. AUD symptoms at age 35 were significantly more likely for those who reported binge (adjusted multivariable odds ratio AOR = 5.61, 95% CI 3.79, 8.30, p < .001) or high-intensity (AOR = 12.26, 95% CI 6.70, 22.41, p < .001) drinking versus no/low drinking at age 29/30. The likelihood of having AUD symptoms was significantly higher for high-intensity than for binge drinkers (AOR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.14, 4.19, p = .019). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 80% of those young adults who reported engaging in high-intensity drinking (10+ drinks in a row) at age 29/30 later reported AUD symptoms at age 35. High-intensity drinking appears to be a strong prospective marker of risk for AUD symptoms among adults in the United States.