Decadal‐scale changes of the circulation in the tropical atlantic sector associated with Sahel drought

Abstract Trends in the general circulation setting during 1948–1983 accompanying the progressive aggravation of drought in sub‐Saharan Africa are investigated from ship observations over the tropical Atlantic and surface station records in western Africa. Decadal‐scale circulation changes in the Atlantic sector include a pressure rise over the tropical North Atlantic; southward displacement of the near‐equatorial wind confluence and associated maximum cloud belt; acceleration of the north‐east trades and possibly a strengthening of the South Atlantic trades, along with increasing cloudiness in the equatorial zone; increasing cloudiness over the tropical North Atlantic and Central American seas; and cooling of surface waters in a band across the tropical North Atlantic contrasting with warming in the South Atlantic. These changes occurred in all seasons, but were most pronounced at the height of boreal summer. Records at land stations in western Africa show that near the coasts the temperature and pressure trends are consistent with the adjacent ocean areas. In the interior of sub‐Saharan Africa, warming trends prevail in boreal summer, presumably as a direct consequence of reduced inflow of cool maritime monsoon air; the concomitant downward pressure trends at continental stations in sub‐Saharan Africa may reflect the hydrostatic effect of increasing temperature. In contrast to boreal summer, slight cooling trends and pressure rises prevail in the interior during winter. In the course of the past four decades, the near‐equatorial wind confluence over the eastern Atlantic migrated southward by 200 km in July–August and 150 km for the rainy season as a whole. Given the steep meridional precipitation gradients across the Sahel, these circulation shifts are large enough to account for the observed downward trend in Sahel rainfall.