Circulating tumor DNA in molecular assessment feasibly predicts early progression of pancreatic cancer that cannot be identified via initial imaging

Molecular assessment using circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has not been well-defined. We recruited 61 pancreatic cancer (PC) patients who underwent initial computed tomography (CT) imaging study during first-line chemotherapy. Initial molecular assessment was performed using droplet digital PCR and defined as the change in KRAS-mutated ctDNA before and after treatments, which was classified into five categories: mNT, molecular negative; mCR, complete response; mPR, partial response; mSD, stable disease; mPD, progressive disease. Of 61 patients, 14 diagnosed with PD after initial CT imaging showed significantly worse therapeutic outcomes than 47 patients with disease control. In these 47 patients, initial molecular assessment exhibited significant differences in therapeutic outcomes between patients with and without ctDNA (mPD + mSD vs. mCR + mNT; 13.2 M vs. 21.7 M, P = 0.0029) but no difference between those with mPD and mSD + mCR + mNT, suggesting that the presence of ctDNA had more impact on the therapeutic outcomes than change in its number. Multivariate analysis revealed that it was the only independent prognostic factor (P = 0.0405). The presence of ctDNA in initial molecular assessment predicted early tumor progression and identified PC patients more likely to benefit from chemotherapy.