Global incidence, prevalence and disease burden of silicosis: 30 years’ overview and forecasted trends

BACKGROUND: Globally, silicosis accounts for 90% of all pneumoconiosis cases and is a serious public health issue. It is characterized by progressive inflammation and irreversible pulmonary fibrosis. A comprehensive analysis at temporal, spatial and population levels with the most updated data from GBD 2019 is provided in this study to estimate the disease burden of silicosis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2029. METHODS: We delineated silicosis data on incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as age-standardized rates (ASRs) across 30 years from GBD 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to detect temporal changes and estimate annual percentage change (APC) of each trend segment. Measures were stratified by time, location, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model was applied to elaborate ASR trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections to the next 10 years. RESULTS: Globally, silicosis incident, prevalent cases, and DALYs increased by 64.6%, 91.4%, and 20.8%, respectively. However, all the corresponding ASRs showed overall downward trends with an estimated average APC (AAPC) of -0.5(-0.7 to -0.3), -0.2(-0.5 to 0.0), and - 2.0(-2.2 to -1.8), respectively. Middle and high-middle SDI regions carried the heaviest disease burden. The highest disease burden of silicosis was mainly transferred to the older from 1990 to 2019. The trend of ASRs demonstrated a rapid decline between 2005 and 2019, followed by a continuous decline until 2029. CONCLUSION: Though disease burden of silicosis has been on a decline in general from 1990 to 2019, which shows a promising prospect but cannot be ignored. We should pay more attention to implementing preventive tactics and improving the life quality of present sufferers.