Until recently the Economic Research Centre (ERC) panel at the University of Western Australia published forecasts of future gold prices in The West Australian newspaper. This note assesses the accuracy of these forecasts. The results show that the actual gold price series follows a simple random walk and that the forecasts obtained from this model perfor M slightly better than those of the ERC panel.
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Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan (1991) studied this question.