Mendelian randomisation for mediation analysis: current methods and challenges for implementation

Abstract Mediation analysis seeks to explain the pathway(s) through which an exposure affects an outcome. Mediation analysis experiences a number of methodological difficulties, including bias due to confounding and measurement error. Mendelian randomisation (MR) can be used to improve causal inference for mediation analysis. We describe two approaches that can be used for estimating mediation analysis with MR: multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MVMR) and two-step Mendelian randomisation. We outline the approaches and provide code to demonstrate how they can be used in mediation analysis. We review issues that can affect analyses, including confounding, measurement error, weak instrument bias, and analysis of multiple mediators. Description of the methods is supplemented by simulated and real data examples. Although Mendelian randomisation relies on large sample sizes and strong assumptions, such as having strong instruments and no horizontally pleiotropic pathways, our examples demonstrate that it is unlikely to be affected by confounders of the exposure or mediator and the outcome, reverse causality and non-differential measurement error of the exposure or mediator. Both MVMR and two-step MR can be implemented in both individual-level MR and summary data MR, and can improve causal inference in mediation analysis.