Analyses of two state‐of‐the‐art, blended space‐based and ground‐based global rainfall data sets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) reveal that there was a significant shift in the probability distribution functions of tropical rainfall during the period 1979–2003. This shift features a positive trend in the occurrence of heavy (top 10% by rain amount) and light (bottom 5%) rain events in the tropics during 1979–2003 and a negative trend in moderate (25–75%) rain events. These trends are consistent in both data sets and are in overall agreement with the Climate Research Unit's (CRU) gauge‐only rainfall data over land. The relationships among the trends and the possible long‐term changes in rainfall characteristics are discussed.
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Lau et al. (2006) studied this question.
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