Successional Change in Northern Hardwoods Predicted by Birth and Death Simulation

Two simulation models were used to predict species changes in three deciduous forest cover types in New England. A fixed—rate simulator, employing differences among species in birth/death rates, was used for stands approaching a steady—state condition. A density—related simulator, using birth and death rates related to both species and population size, was applied to stands in dynamic condition. Predicted and actual changes over a 25—year period were reasonably consistent.