Examining angler behavior using contingent behavior modeling: A case study of water quality change at a Wisconsin lake

We use contingent behavior (CB) analysis to examine the potential impacts of a hypothetical change in the clarity of a lake. We collect and use both CB and revealed preference data to estimate a pooled negative binomial count data travel cost model. From this analysis we calculate the consumer surplus per angling party day for our case study lake to be about $104, or a total annual consumer surplus of $1.4 million. Using this consumer surplus measure and changes in the intended number of visits obtained from the CB survey, we estimate the loss in consumer surplus associated with a decline in water clarity from 10 to 3 feet (1 foot = 0.3048 m) to be about $522,000 annually (a 38% decrease). Since this is the first such application of CB analysis to estimate the effects of a water clarity change, the study may illustrate a method well suited to analyzing changes in water quality attributes that are easily observable and well understood by recreators.