The Evolution of Attitudes on Same‐Sex Marriage in the United States, 1988–2014

Objective This article assesses the evolution of U.S. opinion on same‐sex marriage. Methods The analysis used multinomial regression on same‐sex marriage questions from eight surveys with more than 34,000 respondents by the Pew Research Center and the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) between 1988 and 2014. Multinomial logistic regression analysis tested five hypotheses about the effects of ideology, partisanship, religious intensity, contact with gays and lesbians, and education on support or opposition to same‐sex marriage over three separate periods (1988, 2003–2013, 2013–2014). Results Religious intensity, ideology, partisanship, contact with gays or lesbians, the Millennial generation, and being born again influenced opinion on same‐sex marriage. Differences by region and religious affiliation declined in relative influence, whereas differences by religious and political values increased between 1988 and 2014. Support increased steadily from 1988. Conclusion Opinion on same‐sex marriage has shifted across all groups, but the increased gap in opinion presages continuing conflict.