Forecasting building occupancy using sensor network data

Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to significant improvement of smart heating and cooling systems. Using a sensor network of simple passive infrared motion sensors densely placed throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model then forecasts occupancy a various horizons into the future. We combine these forecasts using a modified Bayesian combined forecasting approach. The method is demonstrated on two large building occupancy datasets, and shows promising results for forecasting horizons of up to 60 minutes. Because the two datasets have such different occupancy profiles, we compare our algorithms on each dataset to evaluate the performance of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions.