The end of the long baby-boomer generation

This article argues that the post-war baby boomers led a long generation in which successive cohorts achieved, and came to expect, continuous improvement in living standards. The article proceeds to argue that current cohorts of young people in all Western countries will become the vanguard of a successor generation, distinguished by a different youth life stage and also by different characteristic experience of adulthood and, eventually, a different politics than the generation's predecessor. It is argued that the new generation's situation arose initially within the working classes and has now spread upwards. The article suggests that this new trend is unlikely to be reversed on account of (1) economic growth rates in Western countries slowing since the three decades that immediately followed the Second World War; (2) labour's declining share of gross domestic product and wider income inequalities within countries; (3) costs of imported commodities will most likely continue to rise; (4) new cohorts of workers will have to bear some of the costs of supporting swollen cohorts of retired citizens, tackling pollution and alleviating climate change; (5) the costs of raising children are likely to continue to rise and new cohorts of workers will most likely need to make some private provisions for their own health care and retirement incomes; (6) there are now excessive numbers of higher education graduates in all world regions relative to the number of graduate jobs; and (7) the changing class demography in West Europe and North America. The article concludes by considering possible outcomes which include intensified inter- and intra-generational conflict.