Investment Slowdown in Developing Countries During the 1980s: Debt Overhang or Foreign Capital Inflows?

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equation model for the determination of creditworthiness and investment rates in developing countries. Its purpose is to test the debt overhang hypothesis, according to which the external debt burden provides a strong disincentive to domestic capital formation. The results indicate that debt overhang has contributed significantly to the reduction in developing country investment rates during 1980-86. The model also examines the contribution of foreign capital inflows and shows that commercial inflows contributed significantly to the investment slowdown, while noncommercial inflows were insignificant.