A simple risk score to identify Southern Chinese at high risk for diabetes

AIMS: To develop a simple scoring system for identifying Southern Chinese at risk of diabetes. METHODS: The score was derived from a risk factor matching cohort for Type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong Chinese (cohort 1, 2448 subjects without a history of diabetes; age, mean +/- sd 37.2 +/- 8.9 years, median 36.0 years; 1649 had risk factors for diabetes and 799 were age-matched control subjects from the community). Two other cohorts were used to validate the risk score (cohort 2, 3734 subjects with risk factors for diabetes; and cohort 3, 1513 participants of a community diabetes survey). All subjects had a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). RESULTS: In cohort 1, 270 (11%) of the subjects were found to have diabetes on OGTT. A risk score system was derived using the beta values of the corresponding predictors in the logistic regression analysis. The area under the curve (95% confidence intervals) of the score system was 0.735 (0.705, 0.765). The application of a risk score of > or = 16 increased the detection rate 2.5-4 times in all three cohorts. A high post-test probability of diabetes of > 60% was derived from a risk score of > or = 20. Only 10-20 and approximately 5% with a score of > or = 12 and > or = 16, respectively, are indicated for OGTT. This will considerably improve the yield of OGTT screening. CONCLUSIONS: A simple risk score identifies young-to-middle-aged Southern Chinese at high risk for diabetes. Subjects with a score of 16 or above (out of 30) should undergo OGTT for definitive diagnosis of diabetes.