Theoretical Estimation for Probability Distribution of Health Index of Pumping Wells Using a Mathematical Model Describing Random Deterioration

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Key Points

The aim is to estimate the probability distribution of the health index of pumping wells using a mathematical model for random deterioration.
Analyzed data from 24 pumping wells in Joyo and Yawata cities.
Developed a probability model based on logarithmic deterioration rates affected by Gaussian white noise.
Confirmed exponential degradation behavior in both regions based on empirical data.
The proposed model successfully reproduced the time-varying variability of health index data in both areas.
Yawata city's pumping wells demonstrate a faster average deterioration compared to Joyo city.
Deterioration rates are discussed in relation to geological characteristics.

Study estimates health index probability distribution in pumping wells, suggesting deterioration varies by region.

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MIZOGUCHI et al. (2026) studied this question.

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