Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere ( N ) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985–1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm −2 ) is lower than for the 2000–2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm −2 , uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite‐based reconstruction is significantly correlated ( r ∼0.6) over the 1985–2012 period.