Distribution system reliability: default data and model validation

Distribution system reliability assessment is able to predict the interruption profile of a distribution system based on system topology and component reliability data. Unfortunately, many utilities do not have enough historical component reliability data to perform such an assessment, and are not confident that other sources of data are representative of their particular system. As a result, these utilities do not incorporate distribution system reliability assessment into their design process and forego its significant advantages. This paper presents a way of gaining confidence in a reliability model by developing a validation method. This method automatically determines appropriate default component reliability data so that predicted reliability indices match historical values. The result is a validated base case from which incremental design improvements can be explored.