A statistical analysis is conducted to determine to what extent analyzed and 5‐day reverse‐domain‐filled (RDF) potential vorticity (PV) obtained from meteorological analyses can predict ATLAS nitrous oxide (N 2 O) tracer structure encountered along the ER‐2 flight track during the Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment / Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (ASHOE/MAESA) campaign. The results indicate that RDF PV shows no statistically significant improvement in forecast skill over analyzed PV in predicting tracer structure along the ER‐2 flight track. In fact, RDF generally shows a degradation in predictive skill. RDF does show some success in refining large‐scale gradients and small‐scale structures, present in the analyzed PV fields. In at least one case, RDF PV captured a filament encountered by the ER‐2, but in general, such structure is marked by low confidence in the RDF PV analyses.
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Fairlie et al. (1997) studied this question.
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