Regional Mortality Differences in Russia: Cohort-Specific Effects

The article analyzes the dynamics of age-specific mortality rates among males and females across Russia’s regions between 1989 and 2022. The study aims to assess the impact of cohort effects on mortality and life expectancy (LE) at birth in Russian regions. The study tests the hypothesis that regional LE trends are linked to changes in mortality rates across different generations of men and women. Using data from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database (RusFMD) and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis, the author identifies cohort effects in 76 regions of the Russian Federation.Four types of Russian regions were identified based on mortality cohort effects for males and females born between 1970 and 1985: first, regions with a steady decline in cohort effects from generation to generation; second, those with stagnant cohort effects; third, regions exhibiting minor growth; and forth, those with substantial increases. By 2019, the share of between-group variance (across region types) accounted for 60–70% of the total LE variance, driven primarily by the 1970–1985 birth cohorts (with less pronounced effects among females).The results of the study demonstrate that regional disparities in cohort-specific mortality patterns between males and females have likely contributed to divergent LE growth rates across Russian regions in recent decades. In light of these findings, the author concludes that regional demographic policies aimed at mortality reduction must explicitly integrate cohort-specific effects into their design