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This study analyzes the patterns and determinants of the transitions in functional status among elderly Japanese persons. Data for this research came from a two-wave national probability sample survey of persons aged 60 and over conducted between 1987 and 1990 in Japan. The study focuses on the transitions from two states of origin, "not disable" and "disabled," to three states of destination, "not disabled," "disabled," and "dead." Through multinomial logit analyses, the effects of sociodemographic factors, social relationships, health, and health behavior on transitions in functional status were examined. To assess the impact of panel attrition, the risk of nonresponse was analyzed in conjunction with health transition within the same framework. Finally, an increment-decrement active life table for Japanese elderly people was derived on the basis of the multivariate analyses. According to the life table, a Japanese older person at age 60 is expected to spend about 18.7 years (81%) in functional independence and about 4.4 years (19%) in disability throughout his or her remaining lifetime.
Liu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.