The Diffusion of IPM Techniques among Fruit Growers in the USA

This paper examines the diffusion paths of selected integrated pest management (IPM) techniques for 24 fruit crops in nine states, forecasts when the adoption of IPM techniques will reach 75% of the fruit‐bearing acres, and examines the determinants of the rate of diffusion. The adoption of IPM techniques follows the logistic functional form and 75% adoption of most IPM techniques will be reached before the year 2035, if current conditions prevail. Differences in rates of adoption of IPM techniques can be accounted for by the type of crop, the region where the crop is grown, revenues per acre, and level of research investment. Research Question In 1993 the USDA, the Food and Drug Administration, and the Environmental Protection Agency pledged to work together to reduce pesticide use in order to reduce the associated health and environmental risks. As integrated pest management (IPM) techniques were designed to address some of the health and environmental concerns of pesticides as well as the problem of pest resistance to pesticides, the USDA has set as a goal the use of IPM on 75% of U.S. farmland. This research has three main objectives: (i) to examine the diffusion paths of IPM techniques for 24 fruit crops in nine states accounting for most of the U.S. fruit bearing acreage; (ii) to forecast when the adoption of IPM techniques will reach 75% of the fruit bearing acres, if current conditions prevail; and, (iii) to examine the determinants of the rate of diffusion. Study Description The data are obtained from the Agricultural Chemical Use Survey and its Economic Follow‐On for fruits, administered between the fall of 1993 and the spring of 1994 by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. The survey covers 24 different fruit crops in nine states (California, Florida, Michigan, South Carolina, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New York, Oregon, and Washington) accounting for most of the U.S. fruit bearing acreage. The diffusion of innovations such as the IPM techniques follow this process: after a slow start in which only a few farmers adopt the innovation, adoption expands at an increasing rate. Later, the rate of adoption decreases as the number of adopters begins to exceed the number of farmers who have not yet adopted. Finally, adoption asymptotically approaches its maximum level until the process ends. This process results in an S‐shaped diffusion curve, which is modeled by a logistic curve. In this paper we also examine the significance of influential factors in adoption. We follow a two‐stage modeling approach much like that first used by Griliches. In the first stage we estimate the parameters of logistic diffusion model and predict the future diffusion path. The second stage consists of regressing the slope obtained in the first stage, which represents the natural rate of diffusion, with the factors believed to determine adoption. Applied Questions When will adoption of IPM techniques among fruit growers reach the 75% of acreage? Assuming that current conditions prevail in the next decades, adoption of the selected IPM techniques considered would reach 75% of the fruit acreage nationally between 1995 and 2035, except for scouting (which already has attained this level) and the use of pheromones for control of pests, whose extent of adoption is too low to provide a reliable forecast. The IPM techniques included are scouting, alternating pesticides, reducing pesticide rates or frequencies to protect insects and other organisms that are beneficial to the crops, purchasing beneficials, soil testing for pests, using pesticides less harmful for beneficial insects, and using pheromones to monitor and control pests. What can be done to accelerate the rate of adoption of IPM techniques? From a policy perspective, the study suggests that one way to accelerate the process of IPM adoption and to move up the dates for reaching 75% adoption would be to increase funding for both public and private investment in agricultural research. Another possibility is a per acre subsidy to increase farm revenues. However, given the broad nature of this study, it is not possible to provide specific policy recommendations, because such recommendations would vary by region and even by crop. Moreover, while it is possible that additional policy measures, notably stimulating extension activities, may also help accelerate IPM diffusion, this study did not obtain enough empirical evidence to suggest their inclusion because the proxy variables used to capture their effect in the model were not statistically significant, possibly due to the weakness of those proxy variables, due to limitations in data availability.