Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
In this paper a simple model is developed in which the piglet price serves as a forecast for the hog price 3 months ahead. The model is tested on data from Northern Europe, viz. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland during the period 1982-1992. The empirical results lend strong support to the hypothesis that hog producers hold rational expectations when pricing the piglets. Thus, the weight adjusted piglet price typically represents an unbiased (conditional) forecast with unsystematic errors for the hog price one quarter later.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Ole Gjølberg (1995) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 related papers. Consider them for comparative context: