Global burden and prediction study of schizophrenia 1990–2030: comparison with China

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess and predict global and Chinese schizophrenia burden trends from 1990 to 2030. METHODS: Retrieve data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of schizophrenia from 1990 to 2021. Establish a joint point analysis and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the burden of schizophrenia in 2030. RESULT: In 2021, the global prevalence of schizophrenia was approximately 13.60 million cases, with an age-standardized rate of 275.78 per 100,000 population. The global incidence was around 1.2 0million cases, with a rate of 15.43 per 100,000, and the global DALYs totaled 14.80 million, with a rate of 177.75 per 100,000. In China, the prevalence was about 5.30 million cases (300.81 per 100,000), the incidence was 236,175 cases (18.36 per 100,000), and DALYs were 3.40 million (203.88 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2021, China's age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates increased, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) of 0.12 and 0.04. However, the global age-standardized incidence rate also decreased, with an EAPC of -0.04. Using the BAPC model, forecasts indicate a rising trend in both global and Chinese schizophrenia prevalence, incidence, and DALYs from 2020 to 2030. By 2030, the global age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and DALYs are projected to reach 280.36, 15.59, and 177.31 per 100,000, respectively. In China, these rates are expected to reach 332.58, 19.87, and 216.67 per 100,000. CONCLUSION: The global burden of schizophrenia is increasing, particularly in China, where the trend is especially pronounced. In response to this trend, Mental health education and early identification measures should be promoted for high-burden populations, especially young adults aged 20-34, while mental health support services for men should be strengthened and more gender-sensitive treatment and rehabilitation pathways should be designed. As future burden projections continue to rise, policymakers should optimize resource allocation, accordingly, incorporate research data into mental health planning, and improve accessibility and equity of services for key populations, in order to promote more targeted intervention strategies and effectively alleviate the social and family burden of schizophrenia.