Welfare Benefits and Female Headship in U.S. Time Series

Whether welfare benefits affect marriage and fertility decisions of the low-income population has been the subject of much research. The substantial bias in the U.S. welfare system toward female-headed families, relative to either married couples or single childless individuals, provides a clear financial incentive for early nonmarital childbearing, postponement of marriage, divorce, postponement of remarriage, and other behaviors that make eligibility for welfare benefits more likely or that avoid the loss of eligibility after it has been achieved. The findings in the cross-sectional research literature through 1995, summarized in Moffitt (1998), exhibit a clear central tendency pointing toward an effect of welfare on some aspects of family structure, namely, marriage and fertility. However, there is also agreement that the time-series evidence is inconsistent with that from crosssectional data, for real benefits have been falling for over 20 years, while female headship has been rising. Moreover, bringing other programs such as Food Stamps and Medicaid into the picture helps explain rising female headship increases in the late 1960's and early 1970's, when those programs were introduced and solidified, but does less well in explaining the