Marriage Rates and Marriageable Men: A Test of the Wilson Hypothesis

This article examines the hypothesis that recent declines in black marriage rates have been driven by a declining pool of high-earning, young black men. Using 1970 and 1980 SMSA-level Census data to estimate a fixed-effect model of black marriage rates, I find that declines in the pool of "marriageable" black men are responsible for only a small fraction of the decline in black marriage rates. My estimates suggest that this decline in the number of high-earning, young black men explains only 3 to 4 percent of the decline in black marriage rates during the 1970s.