In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast the drift of objects in the near coastal ocean over a period of several weeks. The proposed approach consists in estimating the probability of events linked to the drift using Monte Carlo simulations. It couples an averaging method which permits us to decrease the computational cost with a statistical method in order to take into account the variability of meteorological loading factors.
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Ailliot et al. (2006) studied this question.
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