History, neighborhood, and proximity as factors of land-use change: A dynamic spatial regression model

Spatio-temporal land-use change (LUC) modeling provides vital information about land development dynamics. However, accounting for such dynamics faces methodological challenges. This research introduces a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data (DSPD) modeling framework for LUC, incorporating spatial and temporal dependencies. A continuous response variable is introduced to take advantage of traditional spatial regression models. The DSPD model is applied to balanced spatial panel data at the block-group level covering Florida between 2010 and 2019 and incorporating both new and previously used proxy variables. The urban growth impacts of site-specific, proximity, neighborhood, socio-economic, and transportation factors are investigated. This study contributes to the literature by providing extensive insights into spatial autocorrelation, spillover, heterogeneity, and temporal lag effects in urban growth. Also, the study reveals the importance of mobility and mortgage financing in land development. The proposed modeling framework achieves high accuracy. The dynamic structure of this model provides an opportunity to predict future urban growth without the need for a land development scenario. Such predictions provide insights about future land development to practitioners and policymakers.