Using the Gamma-Poisson model to predict library circulations

Recent work has questioned the appropriateness of the gamma mixture of Poisson processes to model the circulation of books in a library. The purpose of this article is to argue that, for all its perceived defects, the model can be used to make predictions regarding future circulations of a quality adequate for general management requirements. The precise mathematical form of the model allows the consideration of any number of possible future developments. The use of the model is extensively illustrated with data from the University of Saskatchewan, Canada, and the University of Sussex, England. © 1990 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.