Urban mobility scenarios until the 2030s

Urban mobility is particularly affected by technology development. This research focuses on the mobility system of cities in the foreseeable future – that is, until the 2030s. A systematic literature review (SLR) of 62 scientific documents and 52 scenarios predicted and developed by researchers are presented here, providing a comprehensive picture of current urban transport research perspectives. Based on a complex method built for this review, four scenarios (‘Grumpy old transport’, ‘At an easy pace’, ‘Mine is yours’, and ‘Tech-eager mobility’) have been created, each forecasting a different path towards future urban mobility. The scenarios so formed describe the expected role and potential of emerging mobility solutions (namely autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, and electrification) and include socio-economic and environmental perspectives. By 2030, most likely pathways are the ‘At an easy pace’ or the ‘Mine is yours’ scenarios, which means that only an incremental advance, such as a slow shift towards self-driving, electric and shared vehicle use is predicted.