Completing the Single European Market: An Analysis of the Impact on the Member States

It is widely accepted that the completion of the single market at the end of 1992 will lead to substantial economic gains for the European Community. Both economic theory and recent empirical studies point to important, long-term benefits to be gained from the 1992 project. While the overall Community may gain, how will the benefits-and costs that will result from this program be distributed across the member states? Who wins, who loses, and how might that affect support for continued integration? Focusing on those industrial sectors that will be most affected by the 1992 changes, we examine which states are in the best position to take advantage of these changes, as well as which states are most vulnerable to the sorts of changes that the single market will introduce. We then build on these analyses by showing that there is an economic interest-political support link, in the sense that the likelihood a state will benefit from the 1992 program is positively associated with its support for the single market.