Threat to Whom? Conflict, Consensus, and Social Control

A number of observers have questioned the efficacy of model specifications designed to falsify the conflict perspective of crime control. Exploiting the quasi-experimental qualities of Cincinnati's recent race-related riot, this study employs interrupted time series techniques to evaluate a component of conflict theory, the racial threat hypothesis. In brief, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) transfer function models indicate that, upon controlling for the potentially confounding effects of robbery offenses, the April 2001 riot led to a lasting increase in the level of robbery arrests. The implications of this investigation for distinguishing between the predictions of conflict and consensus theories of crime control are discussed.