Use of remote sensing data for estimation of winter wheat yield in the United States

This paper shows the application of remote sensing data for estimating winter wheat yield in Kansas. An algorithm uses the Vegetation Health (VH) Indices (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI)) computed for each week over a period of 23 years (1982–2004) from Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The weekly indices were correlated with the end of the season winter wheat (WW) yield. A strong correlation was found between winter wheat yield and VCI (characterizing moisture conditions) during the critical period of winter wheat development and productivity that occurs during April to May (weeks 16 to 23). Following the results of correlation analysis, the principal components regression (PCR) method was used to construct a model to predict yield as a function of the VCI computed for this period. The simulated results were compared with official agricultural statistics showing that the errors of the estimates of winter wheat yield are less than 8%. Remote sensing, therefore, is a valuable tool for estimating crop yields well in advance of harvest, and at a low cost.