Wheat production dynamics in Bangladesh: A comprehensive overview of growth, instability, and decomposition

Abstract Wheat is the second most vital cereal crop in Bangladesh. This study investigates the relationship between wheat area and production, responses of production on area, growth, and instability of area, production and yield, and contributing factors to the growth of wheat production in Bangladesh. The data encompasses wheat area, production, and yield spanning from 1970 – 1971 to 2020–2021 and is segmented into two distinct periods (period-I from 1970 – 1971 to 1995–1996 and period-II from 1996 – 1997 to 2020–2021). Correlation coefficients are employed to measure the association between area and production and regression analysis is used to examine the production response on area. Exponential functions are applied to determine area, production, and yield growth rates. We also assess instability in wheat cultivation, production, and productivity using the coefficient of variation and the Cuddy–Della Valle instability index. The decomposition model is used to estimate the relative contributions of area and yield and their interaction in influencing changes in wheat production. The correlation coefficient between wheat area and production was notably strong and regression analysis revealed that an increase of one lakh hectare in wheat area increased production by 1.976 lakh metric tons over the entire period. Throughout the entire study period, significant and positive compound growth rates are evident for area (1.4 %), production (3.4 %), and productivity (2.0 %). The wheat area exhibited the highest variability during the entire period. The study also revealed the significance of the interaction effect as the primary driver of wheat production growth throughout the period. This study emphasizes the importance of adopting a strategically balanced approach to strengthen wheat production in Bangladesh, underscoring the crucial need for policies that simultaneously address the proper use of resources and enhancement of yield per unit area through efficient management practices and cultivation of improved wheat varieties.