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Abstract The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O) 3 and on O 3 source‐receptor (S‐R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate‐chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O 3 increases that occur within parts of high NO x emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O 3 ). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O 3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes—(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission—largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual‐mean surface O 3 response due to climate change ( R 2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual‐mean surface O 3 response through changes in climate‐sensitive O 3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO‐like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual‐mean surface O 3 change to 20% regional O 3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present‐day climate. The surface O 3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present‐day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual‐mean surface O 3 .
Doherty et al. (Mon,) studied this question.