Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Hydropower Resource Development in the Vakhsh River Basin of Tajikistan

With increasing energy demands and environmental pressures, hydropower, as a clean and renewable energy source, has attracted widespread attention for its development and utilization. However, hydropower systems are highly sensitive to climate change, significantly impacting generation, management, and safety. This study addresses the stability of hydropower resources in the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan, using digital analysis, snowmelt runoff simulation, and soil erosion assessment to estimate spatial distribution. Under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), hydropower trends were simulated, and soil erosion was quantified. Results show annual hydropower potentials: Garm (55.465 billion kWh/a), Rogun (112.737 billion kWh/a), Nurex (78.853 billion kWh/a). Across all scenarios, runoff and hydropower generation increase (162–328,108 kWh/a), with growth rates following RCP4.5 < RCP2.6 < RCP8.5. Soil erosion simulation results indicate that a one millimeter increase in precipitation could lead to sediment deposition of 1.57 × 106 kWh/year in upstream reservoirs. These results demonstrate that climate change has a significant impact on hydropower development in the Vakhsh River Basin. The research provides technical support for hydropower development under climate change.