Formal measurement of clinical uncertainty: prelude to a trial in perinatal medicine

...During the planning of a trial to compare early with delayed under different circumstances 10 specialists in fetomaternal medicine interviewed about their beliefs. These results show that experts do not about the benefit of delivery for preterm fetuses that are failing to but are not thought to be near to death. For babies such as those there is a collective and reasonably balanced uncertainty -- the requirement for a randomised trial. It is fortunate that clinicians given same inconclusive information form different views because these provide the impetus for clinical trials. Our results also show,, that some clinicians are in two minds when others have strong of either benefit or harm. This makes agreement on fixed entry unlikely and suggests that individual balanced uncertainty should be entry criterion, a method already adopted in some major trials. The of experts' previous belief and their confidence in this previous is also suitable for bayesian analysis of clinical trials, which takes of opinions based on information external to the trial.