Policy Formation and Implementation in Less Industrialized Countries: a Comparative Analysis of Institutional Effects

An analysis of fertility trends in over 50 less developed countries suggested that a demand translation model provides a more consistent explanation of population policy characteristics than an elite-led change model. The analysis utilized data from 2 time periods: 1) socioeconomic development and level of political democracy in 1965 for their impact on contraceptive availability in 1972 and the crude birth rate decline during 1965-75 and 2) the level of socioeconomic development in 1975 the average level of democracy in 1978-80 contraceptive prevalence in 1980 and the decline in the birth rate during 1975-85. In the 1965-75 period the level of democracy had a strong positive impact on contraceptive availability largely because democratic regimes encouraged the private and commercial sectors to respond to the emerging demand for fertility control. Elite attitudes also influenced contraceptive availability in this earlier period but only through their interaction with political democracy. However the importance of elite influence increased after 1975 in terms of the impact on population policy characteristics other than availability. The finding that the level of democracy had a negative impact on public program effort in 1976-85 while elite attitudes had a highly significant and positive effect suggests that elite influence on population programs increases as these programs mature. Elite attitudes are especially important in authoritarian regimes where high fertility is regarded as an obstacle to development. Overall the elite change model explains program aspects such as administration policy intent and evaluation while the translation model is effective in increasing the actual availability of contraceptive services.