Ordered Probit Analysis of Factors Influencing Farmers' Contributions to Climate Change Adaptation Decisions in Southwest Nigeria

Background and Objective: Agricultural activities in the tropic is already experiencing low crop yields and altered animal compositions as a result of devastating effects of climate change. This has necessitated informed decisions by farmers to cope with the challenges of climate change. This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing farmers contributions to climate change adaptation decisions in Southwest Nigeria using ordered probit model approach. Materials and Methods: Three states were purposively selected from Southwest Nigeria which include: Ekiti, Ogun and Oyo States. Data for the study were collected from 348 randomly sampled farm units. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as mean and inferential statistical methods such as one way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and ordered probit model. Results: The result of the descriptive analysis showed that climate change is having serious effects on agricultural production in Southwest Nigeria as revealed by increased indices of higher temperature and heat, prolonged drought, increased drying up of seedlings, drying up of rivers, lakes and streams and increased cases of flooding among others. The result of the ordered probit model was highly significant (p<0.0000). The explanatory power of the factors as reflected by Pseudo R 2 was high (0.734), indicating that the hypothesized variables were actually responsible for about 73% of the variations in level of contributions of farmers to climate change decision making. Out of the nine variables specified in the model, gender, age, education, farming experience, financial contribution and off-farm job significantly (p<0.01 and p<0.05) influenced farmers contributions to climate change adaptation decision making. Conclusion: Based on the results of the study, it is concluded that climate change is already having serious effects on agricultural production in Southwest Nigeria as shown by indices of climate change indicators. Socio-economic attributes of farmers significantly (at p<0.01 and p<0.05) influence their roles in decision making as regards climate change adaptation. Hence, the study recommended improved extension visits to the farmers on how to effectively cope with the effects of climate change. There should be improved decision making power of the farmers through improved education, income and access to relevant information on climate change adaptation.