Tumor thickness and prognosis in clinical stage I malignant melanoma

The current grouping of patients with malignant melanoma into thin, intermediate, and thick melanomas provides a convenient but arbitrary classification which, although providing "average" survival values for each group, offers crude prognostication for the individual patient. A review of 371 patients with clinical Stage I malignant melanoma, treated during the period 1970 to 1985, was conducted. The estimated 5-year survival rate for female patients with melanomas 1.0 mm thick was 94%; for each 1-mm increment in thickness the survival rate declined by about 3%, up to the 6 mm mark, the survival rate declining thereafter by about 8% for each additional millimeter in the range of 7 to 15 mm of thickness. The estimated 5-year survival rate for male patients with melanomas 1.0 mm thick was 80%; for each 1-mm increment the survival rate declined by about 9%, up to the 10 mm mark. The proposed method of estimating the expected survival according to the patient's sex and the thickness of the primary lesion hopefully provides a more accurate and convenient method of prognostication for the clinician dealing with specific patients with intermediate or thick melanomas.