Analysis of the Strategic Value of Electric Vehicles Based on Mathematical Modeling Approach

Protecting our shared planet, where we coexist, is an undeniable global consensus. Based on this consensus, various regions and countries are gradually replacing fuel-powered buses with environmentally friendly E-buses. This article analyzes the environmental impact of using fuel-powered vehicles and electric vehicles. Therefore, a model was established that relates factors such as PM2.5, AQI, the number of electric vehicles, the number of fuel-powered vehicles, the total length and number of bus routes, and daily passenger volume. However, considering the complexity of these factors and their interdependencies, the article first considers using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to select a few key indicators from multiple variables. Then, based on the key indicator data and air quality data for each month, the article uses multiple regression analysis in MATLAB to determine the corresponding parameters. Finally, the article predicts and analyzes the air quality in the Houston area for the next 10 years based on the fitted equation. Based on the financial performance of the public transportation company in the Houston area obtained from research, and assuming that the company replaces 10% of its fuel-powered vehicles with electric vehicles every year, the article predicts the company's financial status for the next 10 years (2024-2033) using Monte Carlo simulation. The prediction includes investment costs for charging stations for electric vehicles, procurement costs for electric vehicles, and additional electricity costs. Based on the predicted results, the article uses the Net Present Value (NPV) indicator from economics to evaluate the investment in assets, aiming to ensure that the transition costs do not exceed 50%. The article adopts the same approach as in question two but modifies the replacement rate of fuel-powered vehicles. Instead of 10% per year, the replacement rate is set to 8% for the first five years and 12% for the next five years. The article then simulates and evaluates the different replacement strategies between question two and question three. Additionally, the conclusions from the first and second questions are applied to Beijing and New York to evaluate the ecological changes in different regions, demonstrating the reliability of the constructed models. The article discusses the benefits and advantages of adopting electric vehicles to government officials. The aim is to encourage government officials to consider increasing investment in replacing fuel-powered vehicles with electric vehicles.