Valuing Government Expenditures: The Case of Medical Care Transfers and Poverty*

This paper explores the choices and potential biases involved in valuing one type of government expenditure, medical transfers, and in estimating its antipoverty impact. Three methodological approaches–(a measure of) government costs, (a measure of) cash‐equivalent values and (a measure of) funds released–are contrasted both in concept and in practice. We assign benefits to individuals after assuming that Medicare and Medicaid provide insurance to all those who are eligible. The resulting estimates for 1968 and 1974 illustrate the efficacy of these medical transfers in reducing the number of persons in poverty. Two recent studies, one by the Congressional Budget Office, and the other by Morton Paglin, further highlight the importance of medical transfers for estimating poverty, despite the fact that we do not wholly agree with the methodologies which they employ. Our results indicate that in the aggregate, while medical care transfers have a substantial impact on poverty, the choice of a specific estimation approach has little effect on poverty estimates. However, for the elderly and possibly also for other groups (e.g. the rural poor), choice of estimation technique is quite crucial for estimating the extent of poverty.