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Theory: Breaking the stability of interstate conflictual relationships requires a dramatic change in the environment of those relationships. Hypotheses: The beginning and end of enduring rivalries are closely related to the timing of large political shocks in the form of world wars, territorial changes, alterations in the international power distribution, civil wars, and national independences. Methods: Descriptive statistics on timing of enduring rivalry-initiation and termination vis-a-vis political shocks, supplemented by event history analysis. Results: Political shocks were found to be a modest necessary condition for the initiation and termination of enduring rivalries with the strongest impact from world wars, civil wars, and national independences.
Goertz et al. (Wed,) studied this question.