Climate Change Projections and its Impacts on Potential Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Uttarakhand

Introduction: Mountainous regions in India are prone to malaria disease but with low intensity. In this context, Uttarakhand state, a hilly region situated in the northern parts of India and located in the central Himalayan region is also prone to malaria disease and malaria is present in four out of its 13 districts which are mainly plain stations.Method: A numerical dynamical malaria model, VECTRI is used in this study based on various climatic and non-climatic parameters such as surface mean temperature, rainfall, population density etc. to predict the future malaria transmission dynamics in Uttarakhand state. VECTRI model is simulated with the inputs obtained from the CCSM4 global climate model for the baseline period (1975-2005) and for the near future projection period 2006-2035 (hereafter referred to as 2030s). Rainfall, surface mean temperature, mosquito vector density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) during the Indian monsoon season (June-Sept) are being investigated from the outputs of VECTRI model simulations to predict the future malaria transmission dynamics in the Uttarakhand region with respect to the future climate change under RCP 8.5 emission scenario. Results: Results indicate an overall increase in EIR values (increase is around 30%), indicating an increase in future malaria transmission in Uttarakhand state as a whole with a maximum increase in the central parts of the state which are plain areas with a warming temperature of 1°C and with an increase in rainfall of 15% by 2030s with respect to the baseline period.Conclusion: Future warming and increase in the rainfall intensity during the summer monsoon season (June-September) over Uttarakhand state could potentially increase the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria transmission over the regionin future under RCP8.5 scenarios.