Statistical Aspects of Forecasting and Planning for Hurricanes

Virtually every aspect of hurricane planning and forecasting involves (or should involve!) the science of statistics. The very active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons—in particular the devastating landfall of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast—as well as concerns that climate change is altering hurricane frequency and intensity, provide many examples of the use and misuse of statistics. Although the massive news media coverage indicated the interest and importance of these stories, from a scientific standpoint much of the “information” in these media reports was of dubious accuracy, especially where statistics were concerned. These examples indicate many opportunities to advance the state of the art of hurricane forecasting and planning through the intelligent applications of statistical analyses. This article considers several issues related to hurricane planning and forecasting, including a review and discussion of progress since 1985, when The American Statistician published some articles on the role of statistical analyses and hurricane forecasting.