A comprehensive assessment of sequence-based and template-based methods for protein contact prediction

MOTIVATION: Pair-wise residue-residue contacts in proteins can be predicted from both threading templates and sequence-based machine learning. However, most structure modeling approaches only use the template-based contact predictions in guiding the simulations; this is partly because the sequence-based contact predictions are usually considered to be less accurate than that by threading. With the rapid progress in sequence databases and machine-learning techniques, it is necessary to have a detailed and comprehensive assessment of the contact-prediction methods in different template conditions. RESULTS: We develop two methods for protein-contact predictions: SVM-SEQ is a sequence-based machine learning approach which trains a variety of sequence-derived features on contact maps; SVM-LOMETS collects consensus contact predictions from multiple threading templates. We test both methods on the same set of 554 proteins which are categorized into 'Easy', 'Medium', 'Hard' and 'Very Hard' targets based on the evolutionary and structural distance between templates and targets. For the Easy and Medium targets, SVM-LOMETS obviously outperforms SVM-SEQ; but for the Hard and Very Hard targets, the accuracy of the SVM-SEQ predictions is higher than that of SVM-LOMETS by 12-25%. If we combine the SVM-SEQ and SVM-LOMETS predictions together, the total number of correctly predicted contacts in the Hard proteins will increase by more than 60% (or 70% for the long-range contact with a sequence separation > or =24), compared with SVM-LOMETS alone. The advantage of SVM-SEQ is also shown in the CASP7 free modeling targets where the SVM-SEQ is around four times more accurate than SVM-LOMETS in the long-range contact prediction. These data demonstrate that the state-of-the-art sequence-based contact prediction has reached a level which may be helpful in assisting tertiary structure modeling for the targets which do not have close structure templates. The maximum yield should be obtained by the combination of both sequence- and template-based predictions.