Manifest Predictors of Past Suicide Attempts in a Population of Icelandic Adolescents

Past suicide attempts have been found to be a major risk factor for both repeated attempts and completed suicide. The utility of this is, however, limited by the fact that the majority of all suicide attempts never come to professional attention. This paper explores the possibility of using manifest indicators to predict which individuals in a population of adolescents have attempted suicide. Using logistic regression, manifest predictors in the categories of school, leisure, peer and parent relations, consumption, and contact with suicidal behavior could identify either a quarter of the population containing three quarters of all suicide attempters or 2% of the population where two thirds of those predicted actually had attempted suicide. It is thus concluded that manifest predictors can complement psychiatric screening methods by efficiently reducing the number to be screened.