The Role of Context in Developing Informal Statistical Inferential Reasoning: A Classroom Study

Context is identified as an important factor when considering the learning of informal statistical inferential reasoning, but research in this area is very limited. This small exploratory study in one grade 10 (14 year olds) classroom seeks to learn more about the role context plays in learners' inferential reasoning, where both teacher and students are positioned as learners. Two frameworks for context are used to analyze the classroom dialogue: The data-context used in statistical enquiry and in the formation of statistical concepts and the learning-experience-contexts such as prior statistical knowledge, which can affect the learning process. The analysis tracks the learning of informal inferential reasoning before, during, and after the introduction of sampling variability concepts. Data-context was found to assist learners in finding meaning from observed patterns, but could divert their attention during the construction of concepts and when attempting to apply newly-learned theory. Learning-experience-contexts played a significant role in mediating learners' development of informal inferential reasoning. Implications for developing concepts for informal inferential reasoning and for research are discussed.