Health Selection and the Effect of Smoking on Mortality

We show that individuals who are in poorer health, independently from smoking, are more likely to start smoking and to smoke more cigarettes than those with better non‐smoking‐related health. We present evidence of selection, relying on extensive data on morbidity and mortality. We show that health‐based selection into smoking has increased over the last 50 years with knowledge of its health effects. We show that the effect of smoking on mortality is greater for more highly educated individuals and for individuals in good non‐smoking‐related health.