Reveals significant seasonal patterns in elderly mortality in Italy, indicating climate influences.
• Prior calibration leverages observed pseudo-variance for intuitive elicitation. • Single hyperparameter controls shrinkage consistently across model components. • Extended Knorr-Held model including spatial, temporal and seasonal interactions. • Posterior variance decomposition highlights COVID-19 waves. • Seasonality greatly impacts mortality risk, revealing winter peaks and summer heatwaves.
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Gardini et al. (2026) studied this question.
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